Tally O'Malley (MathStart by Stuart J. Murphy - TALLYING - Tally marks are a useful tool for children to keep track as they count, and for data collection. Grouping tally marks also reinforces counting by fives.
Probability MEGA Pack of Math Stations Worksheets and Activities
PROBABILITY AND PROBLEM SOLVING. Children describe event as likely or less likely and create the probability examples. Children reflect on the process of mathematical problem solving. I would provide a real jar and color marbles.